The FPL Intelligence Report: Seeking Alpha 5.5
Joao Pedro is now template but are FPL managers overlooking Igor Thiago? Plus two new Bomba defender transfers and how tired is Declan Rice?
Of sliding doors and roads taken and not taken are FPL fortunes won or lost.
The template has shifted to Joao Pedro and away from Igor Thiago, but are we sure that’s the right move?
In The FPL Trading Desk Call: Ready Player One, I revealed who my Forward 3 is going to be (if new information changes my belief, I will tell you). And you’ll probably (rightfully) guess that assuming good health and no confirmed rest/bench, Erling Haaland will be my Forward 1.
That leaves me with a decent amount of cash to deploy on a second forward. This player may not be captain material, but he will be expected to have a clear role in their team with the starting slot and minutes to back it, a lot of goal involvement and ideally routes to points including penalties, assists and bonus.
At the moment I am down to two options: Igor Thiago and Joao Pedro. We’ll deep dive on those two. I’ll share a lot of data in the free preview and the proprietary analytics and sharpest edge will be behind paywall. As discussed in these pages, I rely on paywall because a) I spend a lot of money and time on the data and analysis; b) I spend a lot in compute power; and most importantly c) it protects YOUR EDGE because the second something is publicly broadcast on Opta Analyst or similar sites is the exact minute that information stops having real edge for you. Don’t underestimate your competitors. Like, ever. Assume they are better read, more committed, more rigorous and disciplined in their process, and more informed than you. If you have the spirit of a winner and the eye of the tiger, then welcome home.
The Friday bomba, Liverpool edition
Before we dive into the Thiago vs Pedro Showdown, I wanted to address the Friday “bomba” as confirmed by Fab Romano: Liverpool have loaned Barcelona’s Ronald Araujo for the season.
I shared my call publicly on X and Substack Notes immediately after the news was announced. The SantiSignals Trading Desk Call on Ronald Araujo is: Avoid.
Why?
Based on his historical data he would be expected to clear the DEFCON threshold 4-10% o the time.
Via Statsbomb data, the Uruguayan plays out under pressure instead of clearing, doesn’t intercept at volume, doesn’t press at volume. His elite traits are, well, elite: 98th percentile for never being dribbled past and 94th percent for aerial win rate.
The big issue with Araujo is availability. He’s had huge injury and personal problems. It’s cost him 25.5% of his games in the past six years, and he wasn’t always first choice at Barcelona when available.
Araujo does offer good set piece defending because he’s so good in the air (he’s a TALL dude), and that will help with a major Liverpool weakness last year (Liverpool were so bad, they let go their set piece specialist coach). That could help with additional clean sheets for Liverpool. But this assumes he is available, which, good luck.
Araujo is a big name coming from a big team into a big team and the Andoni Iraola effect will have many punters dreaming of Marcos Senesi or James Hill 2.0. You can dream, it’s allowed! But dream while he’s on your watchlist at most. Never in your GW1 side.
The Saturday bomba, Forest edition
Welcome to Nottingham Forest Ousmane Diomande, your new manager Oliver Glasner loves himself a DEFCON-fertile back three. You will fit right in on Chris Richards’ former role on the right alongside Milenkovic central and Murillo on the left! While the Chris Richards role was the least “DEFCON-y” of Palace’s back three, he still hit the bar 39% of the time.
As of this writing we don’t know how FPL will price Diomande, but we can probably assume he’ll join Milenkovic and Murillo at £5.5.
It’s worth reminding folks that Glasner originally wanted Diomande to replace Guehi last Summer, so he’s had over a year to lust after the player and perfect his theoretical role in his backline. This should be as close to plug-and-play as new transfers get coming into a new team under new management.
Diomande, on paper, may not have the highest defensive contribution numbers and a lot of that is because he played for a dominant Sporting CP in Portugal. Even so, he rated as a top player for tackle success rate. Diomande is also very solid in the air although his passing and ball winning need to develop. Still, he is probably an upgrade on the likes of Chris Richards though not as “polished” as Marc Guehi was under Glasner. He’ll definitely be one to watch!
Is Declan Rice tired?
With confirmation (just don’t tell Newcastle) that Bruno Guimaraes is joining Arsenal, the Gunners’ midfield picture becomes a bit more crowded. It’s likely Guimaraes will eat a lot of Martin Zubimendi’s minutes given the Spaniard lost some playing time under Arteta toward the back end of their championship season. It’s also possible Martin Odegaard, never the most reliably available sort anyway, will lose some minutes. But it’s maybe an opportunity for Declan Rice, who can normally be counted for 90 x 38, to (finally!) get some rest. That would naturally discount him as an FPL asset.
Talk is he’s tired. Like very, very tired. And rightfully so. He’s an all-action dynamo who plays a ton of minutes in many very high-profile matches. He was also one of the most important players for England, which made it all the way to the semifinals (and finished third in the World Cup).
The eye test and the narrative say Rice was exhausted during the World Cup. Let’s take a look at his kinetic performance data across all England matches to see what the data reveals, and what it could mean for his FPL xMin for the opening portion of the upcoming season:
The stomach virus hit after Mexico City (oh the joys of Montezuma’s Revenge!). His minutes after the Battle at the Azteca went 45, 83, 90.
His last game was his best. True it was a near-meaningless match for third place versus France, but it was played in the afternoon under a very hot and humid Miami sun. In that match he hit 33.1 km/h above his previous highest reading of 31.6 in the Azteca match.
His distance per 90 was flat after the Mexico match, 10,052; 9,581; 9,960m.
Prior to the Mexico game, in the Round of 32 match versus Congo, Rice covered a total distance of 11,227m, including 124 high-speed runs, 45 sprints, 234m in Zone 5 at a top speed of 32.6.
Back to the Mexico game because it is crucial because a) it was played at 2,200m altitude and b) it was the last game before his stomach virus:
Rice’s Zone 5 running did fall in Mexico (-45%) compared to the R32 match, BUT so did everyone else’s! Eliot Anderson’s fell 52%, Harry Kane’s 56%, Nico O’Reilly 58%, Ezri Konsa 66% and Marc Guehi 92%. Jude Bellingham fell by just 15%. This drop off is explainable by the aforementioned altitude and also game state give England were down a man and decided to park the bus and shut down the attack for much of the second half.
So yes, Rice deserves a bit of a rest. He was clearly not at 100% for the World Cup, but it is also true that we did not see an unexplained drop in his physical performance outputs.
Epic Showdown: Thiago vs Pedro
Joao Pedro is very hot this preseason, having just scored a brace versus AC Milan and FPL Twitter is going bananas. Quietly, however, Igor Thiago also scored a goal in his preseason contest against Rennes, a nice header from an inswinging corner toward the back post.
The template has settled on Pedro, but are we sure that’s the right call ahead of GW1?
First rule of Fight Club. Never assume. Trust and verify.
As I mentioned in a recent article, the great Carlo Ancelotti faced this same conundrum and decision point ahead of Brazil’s World Cup: Igor Thiago vs Joao Pedro. Joao Pedro vs Igor Thiago.
The FPL template is settling on Pedro, in contradiction to Ancelotti’s call on Thiago.
This is not an easy decision, oh dear reader.
The headline numbers from 2025/26:
Igor Thiago scored 22 (an all-time high for a Brazilian player in the Premier League) and Joao Pedro scored 15. The gap, however is penalties.
Strip them of penalties and Pedro leads 15-14, by the way. But penalties happened and are counted as goals, so they stay for now as a win for Thiago.
If you’re a regular reader, by now you know that I am a stickler (sucker?) for expected minutes aka xMin.
Let’s have a look at availability for each asset:
Igor Thiago won unanimously last season:
37 starts to 31
Zero games missed to 3
88.7 mins/start to 85.7
Solio’s xMin projections also go to Igor Thiago (84 every game through first five) to Pedro’s more inconsistent 81, 79, and then settling at 78.
Igor Thiago (£8.0) also wins on role as he’s a defined 9 with undisputed penalties and no competition for his role despite the addition of Callum Wilson. He is also playing for one of just 11 returning managers. Joao Pedro (£7.5), on the other hand, is welcoming Xabi Alonso and time will tell how that shakes out. In theory, I’d be willing to pay Igor Thiago’s £0.5 premium on Joao Pedro.
At this point, Igor Thiago is comfortably ahead so it’s an easy decision right? Right? Brace yourself because what’s coming is one of the wildest data analytics rides I’ve ever been on. It’s now time we stop being polite and start getting real.